So what if the temperature is falling?

The latest pet theory adopted to disprove climate change concerns is that the world is in fact due to enter a period of ‘global cooling’, meaning that there is no need to manage man-made CO2 emissions.

Key bodies which track temperature (such as the UK’s Hadley Centre, and NASA’s Goddard Insitute for Space Studies) have released updated information showing that 2007 showed a fall in overall temperature. Much has also been made of the fact that Artic sea-ice now covers more area that it did this time last year, ignoring the fact that its still the third lowest reported ice coverage since the nadir in 2007, and there are still concerns that it is thinner than usual.

There can be little denying that climate science is still maturing, and that predictions are dependent on the premise selected, and the measurements used. Models need to be updated as new information is gained, or new impacts understood. Generally speaking, it is accepted that climatic fluctuations occur, over thousands, hundreds, even tens of years. This means that it should be overall trends that are at issue, not the behaviour of climate over a few years. Yet those opposed to action on climate change seem to seize on every and any opportunity to attack the theory, rather than to discuss the consequences of its impact.

It’s quite possible that recent cooling could simply be a fluctuation in a long term trend, a natural cooling period in the climate cycle. Maybe the cooling it’s the result of increased amounts of aerosol particles in the atmosphere over the last few decades, due to pollution, which will diminish as the impact of air pollution regulation is felt. We don’t yet know.

The question I would ask is whether or not it’s useful to get caught up in these sorts of arguments. It’s vital to question what we’re told, but equally important to attempt to understand what we’re questioning. Empirically, it is easy to belive that the climate (and extreme weather events) is increasingly volatile – we certainly hear more regularly about floods, droughts and dangerous climate impacts. Does that mean that it’s true? Our experience of the world does not necessarily reflect the truth, rather it tells us more about our own perceptions.

At the heart of the problem lies one fundamental issue – how do we provide clean food, air and water for a global population of 9 billion, when we’re failing to do that effectively for an existing global population of 6 billion? Global population is expanding rapidly and we have to find ways to manage our resources, and keep them in balance, if we are to survive. Cataclysmic concerns about the world’s survival are absurd – the planet will survive. That doesn’t mean that in any way that reflects our wants and needs however.

We need to find ways to manage our resources, and the international attempt to find ways to limit our emissions is possibly the first attempt to model a global approach to managing a particular entity. At the very least, we’re going to learn a lot about what’s possible using this approach. At best, we’re going to develop an international framework for managing resources on an equitable basis. And that’s something we’re going to need soon.